How the contract works
This market settles on a single, publicly published data series: the seven-day moving average of vessel arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF Portwatch. A contract on Yes pays $1 if that average reaches 60 or higher on any date up to and including 31 October 2026; a contract on No pays $1 if it never does over that period. The price at any moment is simply the market's current estimate of how likely that is: a contract trading at $0.30, for instance, would imply traders think there is roughly a three-in-ten chance the average reaches 60 by the deadline; that is a hypothetical figure, not this market's current price. Positions can typically be sold before 31 October 2026 at whatever price is then prevailing, rather than held to settlement.
Yes13%
No87%
Probability
How the price has moved
Because only one venue, Polymarket, lists this contract, there is no cross-venue spread to point to, and no separately reported day-over-day or week-over-week move is available. The consensus has settled at 13% on $255,429 of cumulative volume, a level consistent with a market that views the current shortfall in Hormuz traffic as unlikely to fully reverse within the resolution window rather than one reacting to a specific recent headline. A low, apparently stable reading like this is itself informative: it suggests traders have not seen a development in recent weeks significant enough to move pricing meaningfully in either direction.
Analysis
Context
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and a large share of global liquefied natural gas exports pass each day. It is the single most important maritime chokepoint for energy markets, linking Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Iraq to buyers in Asia, Europe and beyond.
The consensus figure of 13% comes from a single venue, Polymarket, which has traded $255,429 in volume on this contract, a modest but not trivial amount for a niche geopolitical market. Because only one venue lists this contract, there is no cross-venue spread to measure, which means the 13% figure represents the collective view of everyone who has taken a position there rather than an average smoothed across independent order books. No separately reported day-over-day or week-over-week price move is available for this contract, which itself is informative: it suggests a market that has not been jolted by a fresh headline recently and is instead pricing a status quo. The core of the question is the 60-transit threshold IMF Portwatch uses to define its seven-day moving average. Before the current period of disruption, weekly transit counts through the Strait routinely cleared that mark; a market pricing only a 13% chance of the average climbing back above 60 by 31 October 2026 implies traders see the current shortfall as structural rather than a blip a single calm week could erase. A seven-day average also means one strong week is not enough on its own; the recovery has to hold across a full week, which raises the bar further. Roughly two months remain between today, 30 August 2026, and the resolution date. That is a short window for the kind of diplomatic or military de-escalation, a ceasefire, a stand-down of naval patrols, insurers lowering Gulf war-risk premiums, that would need to happen before shipping lines and their underwriters judge the route safe enough to resume normal call volumes. Tanker owners and insurers do not restore normal routing the day a ceasefire is announced; premium adjustments and rerouting decisions tend to lag political developments by weeks, which compresses the realistic runway further.
What moves the probability
Iran-Israel-US tension
Elevated military tension involving Iran, Israel and US forces in the Gulf is the primary reason transit volumes sit below normal. Any visible de-escalation would need to be sustained, not just a single incident-free week, to shift the market meaningfully.
War-risk insurance premiums
High premiums charged by Gulf war-risk underwriters push shipping lines toward rerouting or delay rather than direct Hormuz transit. A cut in premiums is typically a lagging signal that insurers judge the risk to have genuinely fallen.
Seven-day averaging rule
Because the threshold is a seven-day moving average rather than a single day's count, a short burst of higher traffic is not sufficient; the recovery must hold for a full week, which makes the 60 threshold harder to clear quickly.
Diplomatic timeline versus deadline
With roughly two months left before 31 October 2026, there is limited room for both a political resolution and the subsequent commercial response from shipping lines and insurers to occur in sequence.
IMF Portwatch reporting and the 14-day grace period
If Portwatch has not published data for 31 October 2026 within 14 calendar days, resolution falls back on whatever data exists by then, which slightly reduces the practical importance of the exact final day's reading.
The case for
- A ceasefire or formal de-escalation between Iran, Israel and US forces in the Gulf would need to be announced with enough lead time, realistically by mid-to-late September 2026, for insurers and shipping lines to act on it before the 31 October deadline.
- Gulf war-risk underwriters would need to lower transit premiums back toward pre-crisis levels, since high premiums are what keep commercial vessels rerouting or delaying rather than transiting directly.
- IMF Portwatch's seven-day moving average would need to show a full week of sustained vessel calls at or above 60, not just a single day of higher traffic.
The case against
- The seven-day averaging requirement means a brief spike in traffic is not enough; elevated call volume has to hold for a full week, which is a higher bar than it sounds.
- With roughly two months left before the 31 October 2026 deadline, there is limited time for both a political resolution and the subsequent commercial response from insurers and shipping lines to materialize.
- The market's own pricing, at 13%, reflects that traders following this closely see the current disruption as more entrenched than a short-term dip.
What to watch
Between now and 31 October 2026, the clearest signal will be IMF Portwatch's own weekly Hormuz updates, published on portwatch.imf.org, which show whether the seven-day average is closing the gap toward 60. Beyond the data itself, watch for any formal ceasefire or de-escalation statement involving Iran, Israel or US Fifth Fleet operations in the Gulf, any move by major war-risk insurers to cut Gulf transit premiums, and statements from major tanker operators about resuming direct Hormuz routing. The rule also allows a 14-day grace period after 31 October 2026 if Portwatch data for that exact date has not yet been published, so a brief reporting lag near the deadline would not by itself change the outcome.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
- gas covered
- no trading fee