How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if Coco Gauff advances against Iva Jovic in their scheduled US Open match, and at nothing if Jovic advances instead. If the match is never played, ends without a result, or no winner is confirmed by 21 September 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves 50-50, splitting value between the two outcomes. A price of 0.30, for example, would mean the market currently sees roughly a three-in-ten chance of a Gauff win under these settlement terms. Positions in this contract can typically be bought or sold before the 14 September 2026 resolution date at whatever price the market is showing at the time.
Yes3%
No97%
Probability
How the price has moved
The only figure available is the current consensus of 3%, sourced from a single venue, Polymarket, carrying $602,585 in volume. No day-over-day or week-over-week move, nor an opening-range figure, has been supplied for this contract, so it is not possible to say whether the price has been stable or has shifted sharply. What can be said is that a 3% reading this late in the tournament, on a contract with a built-in 50-50 fallback for an unplayed match, points to a market leaning heavily toward the match either not happening as scheduled or Jovic being strongly favored if it does.
Analysis
Context
Coco Gauff, the 2023 US Open champion, is one of the most closely followed American players on tour and a fixture of the tournament's later rounds. Iva Jovic is a younger American player who has been building a résumé on the WTA Tour and occasionally crosses paths with more established compatriots in North American draws.
This contract asks specifically whether Gauff beats Jovic in a scheduled US Open match, not simply whether Gauff wins the tournament. The 2026 US Open runs into mid-September, and by 11 September 2026 the draw has narrowed considerably, meaning any Gauff–Jovic meeting depends on both players' results in prior rounds holding up. The event settles from the official WTA Tour scores page, which will show whether the match was played and who advanced.
Because the contract is tied to one specific head-to-head match rather than a tournament outcome, its price reflects two compounded uncertainties: whether the match happens at all, and if it does, who wins it.
The consensus figure of 3% across tracked venues is a low reading, and it needs to be read carefully because this is not a simple favorite-versus-underdog price. The contract resolves on a specific scheduled match, and if that match does not take place — because one or both players have already exited the draw, or the pairing never materializes in the bracket — the rules call for a 50-50 split rather than an outright loss for either side. A 3% price for a Gauff win therefore reflects the market's view that either the match is unlikely to occur as scheduled, or that Jovic is heavily favored if it does, or some blend of both.
Volume across venues sits at $602,585, concentrated entirely on Polymarket, which is the sole venue listed for this contract. That is a meaningful amount of capital for a single-match sports contract, suggesting active interest in resolving the uncertainty around this specific pairing rather than passive pricing. A single-venue market also means there is no cross-venue spread to check for disagreement; the 3% figure is the only data point available, and its reliability depends entirely on how liquid and attended that one order book is.
The structural detail that matters most here is the 21 September 2026 deadline for a 50-50 resolution if no result is determined. That clause exists precisely because contracts like this are sometimes written before it is certain both named players will actually reach the same round. Given that today's date, 11 September 2026, falls late in the tournament calendar, the low price is consistent with a market that has already priced in a high chance this exact matchup will not occur as originally scheduled, pushing the effective probability of a clean Gauff win down independent of her known ability as a Grand Slam champion.
Without an official record of either player's run through the 2026 draw, the fairest reading is that the price encodes both mechanical settlement risk and a genuine tennis outcome, and the two cannot be cleanly separated from the number alone.
What moves the probability
Draw progression by 14 September
For this contract to resolve on tennis merit rather than the 50-50 default, both Gauff and Jovic need to have advanced far enough to meet on the scheduled date. Any earlier exit by either player pushes the outcome toward the 50-50 fallback rather than a genuine head-to-head result.
Official WTA scores confirmation
Settlement runs through wtatennis.com/scores, so the recorded match result there is decisive. Any delay or ambiguity in that record extends uncertainty right up to the 21 September 2026 cutoff.
Single-venue liquidity
With all $602,585 of tracked volume on one venue, the 3% price reflects the positioning of participants there rather than a cross-market consensus, which can make it more sensitive to a small number of large positions.
Retirement or walkover clauses
The rules specify that a retirement, default, or disqualification hands the win to the advancing player, while a walkover resolves 50-50. Either scenario would settle the contract without a completed match, and both are treated differently under the rules.
The case for
- Gauff reaches the scheduled round and plays Jovic as planned on or before 14 September 2026.
- Gauff wins the completed match, or Jovic retires, defaults, or is disqualified during it, handing Gauff the advance.
- The official WTA scores page records Gauff as the winner before the 21 September 2026 deadline.
The case against
- Either Gauff or Jovic is eliminated in an earlier round, meaning the scheduled match never takes place.
- The match ends in a walkover, in which case the contract resolves 50-50 rather than crediting Gauff with a win.
- No result is confirmed on the WTA scores page by 21 September 2026, 11:59 PM ET, triggering the 50-50 default resolution.
What to watch
The immediate marker is whether the official WTA scores page lists a completed Gauff–Jovic match before 14 September 2026. If no such match appears, attention shifts to the 21 September 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline, after which an unresolved contract defaults to a 50-50 split. Any update to either player's tournament status, including a walkover, retirement, or default, would also settle the contract outside of a normal completed match.
Trade this contract
Open on Polymarket
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