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Will the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be signed into law in 2026?

Resolution: Updated:
28%

market consensus

chance the market gives this event — not your chance of being right

Yes — The event happens
28%
No — The event does not happen
72%

Trade this contract

Open on PolymarketYes 0.28
  • gas covered
Buy the opposite sideNo 0.73

In short

The market treats passage this year as unlikely rather than a coin flip. The probability fell sharply within its first day of trading, from the low-70s down to the mid-20s, reflecting doubt that the Senate can pass, reconcile and send a companion bill to the president before 31 December 2026. A Senate floor vote or a joint committee agreement between Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture would be the clearest signal the odds should move back up.

How the contract works

A contract on this question settles at $1 if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is signed into law by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and at $0 if it is not. The price at any moment is simply what buyers and sellers currently agree the chance of that looks like — a contract priced at 0.30, for example, would mean the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance, not a guarantee either way. That price moves constantly as new information arrives, and a position bought today can typically be sold before 31 December 2026 at whatever price the market has moved to by then, rather than being held to settlement.
What the market thinks happens
$100
Yes28%

The event happens

Costs now
$0.28
If you put in $100
$357
No72%

The event does not happen

Costs now
$0.72
If you put in $100
$139

Probability

0%25%50%75%100%12:0017:3623:1204:4810:2416:00
ConsensusPolymarket

How the price has moved

The contract was first recorded on 29 July 2026 at 71% and initially traded in a range of 69% to 74%, consistent with a market that opened expecting passage this year to be more likely than not. It then fell sharply to around 26%, a drop of roughly 45 percentage points, and has held flat there over the most recent 24 hours with no further movement. With only 29 price observations recorded and all volume ($3,368,584) concentrated on a single venue, the swing likely reflects the market still finding its level on a newly listed question rather than a slow accumulation of information; the specific trigger for the drop is not identified in the available data.

Context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, H.R.3633, sets out which federal regulator — the SEC or the CFTC — oversees which digital assets, and under what conditions a token counts as a security versus a commodity. It is the House's answer to a decade of ad hoc crypto enforcement through litigation rather than statute. The bill's House passage was itself a repeat of a familiar pattern: in May 2024 the previous Congress passed a similar market-structure bill, the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), out of the House, only to see it stall in the Senate with no floor vote before the Congress ended. H.R.3633 now faces the same bottleneck. The Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee share jurisdiction over different pieces of digital asset regulation, and the two committees have not yet produced a single reconciled bill that both chambers can pass in identical form. Under the resolution rule for this market, only a signature into law by 31 December 2026 counts; a bill that passes the Senate in January 2027 or later resolves this question No regardless of what happens afterward.

Analysis

This market is unusually young: it was first recorded on 29 July 2026, only one day before this page was written, and has accumulated just 29 price observations and $3,368,584 in trading volume, all of it on a single venue, Polymarket. That combination — a brand-new listing with a small number of trades — helps explain the size of the move rather than the direction of it. The contract opened at 71%, traded in a range of 69% to 74% for part of its first day, then fell steeply to the current level near 26%, where it has held flat over the most recent 24 hours with a change of 0.0 percentage points. A price that swings roughly 45 points in under two days and then goes completely still is a market that initially priced this as likely, absorbed some reason to doubt that, and has now settled — for the moment — on a much more skeptical view. The legislative mechanics support that skepticism. H.R.3633 has to pass the Senate in a form that matches the House text, or the two chambers have to reconcile differing versions, before anything can go to the president's desk. The Senate has not yet advanced a companion bill through both Banking and Agriculture in identical language, and 2026 is a midterm election year: floor time in September and October is typically consumed by appropriations fights and campaign scheduling, and the November 2026 elections leave only a lame-duck session in December to close the gap before the 31 December deadline. The FIT21 precedent is directly relevant here — a House-passed crypto market-structure bill died in the Senate without a vote in the previous Congress, and nothing about this Congress's calendar guarantees a different outcome. Because only one venue is currently pricing this question, there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement, and the flat 24-hour move suggests traders are, for now, in agreement at the current level rather than actively repricing. The sharp initial drop from the low-70s follows no single publicly reported trigger available here; what can be said plainly is that whatever information or reasoning drove it happened fast, within the market's first day, and has not reversed.

What moves the probability

  • Senate committee split

    Jurisdiction over digital asset rules is divided between the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee, and no single reconciled bill has cleared both. Until that happens, there is no Senate text to send to a floor vote, which pushes the probability of a 2026 signature down.

  • Midterm election calendar

    The November 2026 midterms compress the legislative calendar in the second half of the year, leaving a short lame-duck window in December as the last realistic chance to finish before the 31 December deadline. Less floor time available structurally lowers the odds of passage this year.

  • FIT21 precedent

    A comparable House-passed crypto market-structure bill, FIT21, cleared the House in May 2024 but never received a Senate floor vote before that Congress ended. That direct precedent gives the market a concrete reason to discount House passage as a strong signal of eventual enactment.

  • House passage already secured

    H.R.3633 has already cleared the House, which is the harder chamber for this kind of bill to pass given competing committee interests; that removes one stage of legislative risk and is the main factor keeping the probability above near-zero.

  • Hard settlement deadline

    The market resolves No if signature comes after 31 December 2026, even by a single day, so any Senate delay into January 2027 has the same effect on this contract as the bill failing outright.

The case for

  • The bill has already passed the House, removing one full chamber of legislative risk.
  • A reconciled Senate Banking–Agriculture text could still reach the floor in the September–December 2026 window.
  • Industry pressure for a clear regulatory perimeter for digital asset exchanges gives both parties an incentive to finish the bill before the midterm cycle ends.
  • A lame-duck session in December 2026 has historically been used to pass unfinished priority legislation before a Congress's business carries over.

The case against

  • The Senate has not yet produced a single reconciled bill from its two relevant committees as of the date this page was written.
  • The 2026 midterm elections on 3 November will consume floor time in the months immediately before the deadline.
  • The prior comparable bill, FIT21, passed the House in 2024 and then died in the Senate without a vote, showing this exact bottleneck has occurred before.
  • The settlement rule requires signature by 31 December 2026, so any slippage into January 2027 counts as a No regardless of how close the bill gets.

Trade this contract

Venues (1)

Open on PolymarketYes 0.28
  • gas covered

Venues (1)

Resolution rules

Determined by
Congress.gov legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and official US government sources
Resolution date

This question resolves Yes if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passes both the House and the Senate in identical form and is signed into law by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves No if that has not happened by the deadline, including if the bill passes later, is vetoed without an override, or does not pass at all. The named reference source is the Congress.gov bill tracker for the 119th Congress, alongside other official US government sources; only one venue, Polymarket, is currently trading this question, so there is no cross-venue price spread to reconcile.

Calculation methodology →

Local context

This bill would set the federal rulebook that US crypto exchanges, token issuers and stablecoin platforms operate under, directly affecting companies that list and trade digital assets for US customers. For readers outside the US, the connection is indirect but real: US regulatory clarity or its absence shapes where global crypto trading volume and dollar-denominated stablecoin activity concentrate, which in turn affects pricing and liquidity in crypto markets that non-US investors and exchanges also use.

What to watch

Key dates ahead include any Senate Banking Committee or Senate Agriculture Committee markup session on H.R.3633 or a companion bill, a floor vote schedule announcement from Senate leadership, the August 2026 congressional recess (which pauses floor action), the return to session in September, the 3 November 2026 midterm elections, and any lame-duck session activity in December 2026 ahead of the 31 December 11:59 PM ET deadline. A committee vote or a scheduled floor date would be the clearest concrete signal for this market.

Common questions

What exactly has to happen for this to resolve Yes?
H.R.3633 has to pass the Senate in a form identical to what the House passed, or the two chambers have to reconcile any differences, and the resulting bill has to be signed into law by 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If signature comes after that date, the question resolves No even if the bill later becomes law.
What does the current market price actually mean?
The price is the market's live estimate of the chance the bill is signed into law by the deadline, expressed as a probability. It is not a prediction of what should happen and it does not guarantee any outcome; it simply reflects what traders are currently willing to pay for a contract that pays $1 if the event occurs.
What if the bill passes but is vetoed?
A veto that is not overridden by 31 December 2026 means the bill has not been signed into law by the deadline, so the question resolves No. An override would count as enactment if completed before the deadline.
Why did the price move so much in the first day of trading?
The market opened on 29 July 2026 at 71% and fell to around 26% within roughly a day, based on only 29 recorded price observations. That pattern — large early swings followed by a flat period — is typical of a newly listed, lightly traded market still finding its level, rather than evidence of a single confirmed news event.
Has a bill like this failed before?
Yes. The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) passed the House in May 2024 but never received a Senate floor vote before that Congress ended, meaning it never became law. H.R.3633 faces a similar Senate bottleneck.
Where does the resolution data come from?
The Congress.gov legislation tracker for H.R.3633, together with other official US government sources, is the named reference for determining whether and when the bill is signed into law.

Related events

28%/ 73%
Yes / No
Open on Polymarket