How the contract works
A contract on this question settles at $1 if 2026 turns out to be the single hottest year in NASA GISS's 'No_Smoothing' annual series, and at nothing if any other year, including 2023, 2024 or 2025, ranks first instead. If 2026 ties for first with another year, the contract resolves according to whatever place that tied year holds, per the stated rule. The price at any moment reflects what buyers and sellers currently think the chance is, so a contract trading at 0.30 would imply the market sees roughly a three-in-ten chance of a 2026 record, not a market at this price. Settlement is expected once NASA publishes the 2026 annual figure around January 2027, and a position can be sold before then at whatever price the market is quoting at the time.
Yes53%
No47%
Probability
How the price has moved
All of the recorded trading in this market, $554,966 in volume, sits on a single venue, Polymarket, so there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement between traders in different pools. The current consensus of 54% is close to even odds, which for a question this far from resolution, and this dependent on ENSO developments that have not yet played out, looks like a market genuinely undecided rather than one with a strong lean baked in. No specific day-to-day or week-to-week price history was available for this write-up, so no claim is made here about recent momentum; the honest reading is that the price sits near a coin flip and has not yet found a decisive catalyst.
Analysis
Context
NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has tracked global surface temperature anomalies since 1880. 2023 set a new record at the time, then 2024 surpassed it, a result confirmed by both NASA and NOAA and widely attributed to a strong El Niño event layered on top of long-term warming. That made 2023 and 2024 back-to-back records, an unusual pairing in the historical series.
2025 arrived as the world moved into La Niña-leaning conditions, which typically cool the global average relative to an El Niño year, even as the underlying warming trend continues. The question for 2026 is whether a fresh record is plausible without the kind of El Niño boost that helped drive 2024's number, or whether the year settles in as merely one of the warmest rather than the outright warmest.
NASA GISS is the named settlement source. The agency typically publishes its final annual figure around January of the following year, meaning the 2026 number is expected near January 2027, with a fallback to credible reporting if NASA has not published by 1 March 2027.
The consensus figure of 54% sits just above even odds, which is a reasonable reflection of a genuinely open question this early in the year: half of 2026 had not yet happened as of this writing, and NASA will not publish a final verdict until roughly January 2027. All of the recorded trading activity, $554,966 in volume, sits on a single venue, Polymarket, so there is no cross-venue spread to read for disagreement. A one-venue market at close to 50-50 is best read as a market that has not yet found a strong signal to trade on, rather than one expressing confident consensus in either direction.
The core driver behind the number is the El Niño-La Niña cycle. The 2023-2024 record run coincided with one of the strongest El Niño events in decades, which temporarily adds heat to the atmosphere on top of the steady rise from greenhouse gas accumulation. When El Niño fades and La Niña conditions take over, as happened moving into 2024 and 2025, global mean temperatures tend to ease back somewhat even though the underlying trend keeps climbing. Whether 2026 can post a new record therefore depends heavily on whether ENSO conditions swing back toward El Niño, or at least toward neutral, during the year, something that is genuinely uncertain this far out and is watched closely by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
A second factor is the historical base rate. Back-to-back record years, as seen in 2023 and 2024, are relatively rare in the NASA GISS series; more often a record year is followed by one or more years that fall just short before the next record is set. That pattern argues for some caution about a third consecutive record in 2026, though it does not rule it out, especially given how much the underlying warming trend has accelerated in the past decade.
Because NASA will not publish the final 2026 figure until early 2027, this market will likely see its biggest price movements driven by monthly and quarterly data releases through the year, particularly whenever NOAA or NASA update ENSO status and running annual averages, rather than by any single headline event.
What moves the probability
ENSO phase through 2026
A return to El Niño or neutral conditions would push the probability of a new record higher, while a persistent or strengthening La Niña would push it lower. This is widely viewed as the single largest swing factor for any given year's ranking, based on the pattern seen in 2023-2024 versus 2025.
Underlying warming trend
Each decade has been warmer than the last, so even a La Niña year in 2026 could still rank among the warmest on record, just not necessarily first. This trend supports the yes case even without a strong El Niño assist.
Back-to-back record base rate
Three consecutive record years would be unusual in the NASA GISS series' history. This historical pattern is a modest but real drag on the probability of 2026 taking first place outright.
Data publication timing
NASA is not expected to publish the 2026 final figure until around January 2027, so the market will trade on partial-year data and forecasts for months before settlement, which can keep the price volatile without a hard news trigger.
The case for
- ENSO conditions shift back toward El Niño or neutral during 2026, removing the La Niña drag that has cooled recent years relative to 2024.
- The long-term warming trend continues to add to each year's baseline, making a new record achievable even without an unusually strong El Niño.
- Early-year and mid-year temperature readings through 2026 track above or near the pace set in 2024, giving forecasters confidence well before NASA's formal January 2027 publication.
The case against
- La Niña conditions persist or strengthen through 2026, keeping the global mean temperature below the 2024 peak, as happened in comparable transitions after past strong El Niño years.
- Three consecutive record years, 2024, then 2025 by some measures, then 2026, would be historically unusual for the NASA GISS series, which more often shows a pause after a record before the next one is set.
- NASA's 2026 figure will not be confirmed until around January 2027, leaving a long window in which the eventual reading could land close to but short of the record.
What to watch
Key dates and releases include NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO updates, issued roughly monthly, which track whether conditions are moving toward El Niño, La Niña or neutral through 2026. NASA GISS itself publishes monthly temperature anomaly updates throughout the year, which build the running picture ahead of the final annual figure. The World Meteorological Organization typically issues mid-year and end-of-year state-of-the-climate statements that get wide press coverage. The formal resolution event is NASA's publication of the 2026 annual figure, expected around January 2027, with the fallback to credible reporting only kicking in if that has not happened by 1 March 2027.
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